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Ireland December 2016

Published: Jan 10, 2017
  • Exchequer Tax Receipts showed the total take for 2016 was €47.864bn.  The target had been €47.225bn.  This represents an increase on the 2015 intake which was €45.6bn.
  • Ireland’s growth forecast for 2017 is reported as follows:
    • Central Bank 3.6%
    • ESRI 3.5%
    • Euro Commission 3.6%
    • DOF 3.5%
    • OECD 3.2%
    • IMF 3.2%
  • The ERSI as part of its December economic outlook studied the implications of a CCTB – common corporate tax base were it to be introduced within the EU.  They warn of a rise in unemployment and a severe loss in competitiveness.  In total, 1.5% could be knocked off our economic output. 
  • The ERSI report predicts that if the UK went down the ‘hard Brexit’ route, Irish output would reduce by 3.8%, unemployment would rise by 2% over 10 years in Ireland and wages would have fallen by 3.6%.  FI would however rise to 7.3%.
  • VAT receipts for November were 6.6% less than expected.  Year to date, VAT is now 3.2% behind expectations.  Whilst Total Revenues for November were €777m higher than expected.  Income Tax was also up 5.9% vs the same period in 2015. 
  • Investors spent €1.5bn on retail assets during 2016 – shopping centres accounted for the majority of this spend.
  • The Government is predicting that consumer spending will be 3.3% for 2016 and 2.9% for 2017. 
  • Used car imports into Ireland have reached over 70,000 for 2016, the highest in a decade.  The main reason appears to be buyers going to Northern Ireland following the fall of Sterling following Brexit.
  • It is estimated that tens of thousands of jobs will be created by 2020 in sector’s such a construction and IT.  However the agriculture sector will suffer job losses of 10,500 by 2020 due to Brexit.  The Economic Eye Winter Forecast by EY also predicts that the Irish economy will have expanded by 3.1% for 2016 and projects 2.9% for 2017.
  • Capita, which currently employs 3,300 people in Ireland, are planning to sell several units due to the uncertainty around Brexit.  They are currently planning to shelve 2,000 jobs throughout their units worldwide.  Overall, they are employers of 78,000 worldwide.
  • Gaelectric Ireland has sold €350m worth of windfarms to China General Nuclear Power Group.  7 of the windfarms are located in the Republic with a further 7 in the North of Ireland.
  • Ratings agency Fitch has changed its 2017 Irish banking outlook from positive to stable in the wake of Brexit.
  • Headline inflation for November was -0.1, YoY.  The decline was most significant in the household equipment sector which was down 4.3%.  Clothing & Footwear was down 2.8%.  

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