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Europe & UK Spring 2018

Published: Feb 13, 2018
  • UK: the IMF predicts global growth this year and 2019 to be 3.9%, the biggest expansion since 2011.  However, the UK is expected to see growth of just 1.5% for 2018 and 2019.   
  • UK: Supply of new homes being built in London has exceeded demand with 12,952 new properties yet to find a buyer.  The surplus is the largest in 8 years (when Molior London began the research).  The group said “the disconnect between construction starts and sales is a concern”.  House prices in London have fallen at their fastest rate since the financial crisis.
  • UK: Food prices rose at their fastest level in 4 years in October due to the fall in Sterling.  Prices were 4% higher in October 2017 than the same month in 2016.  The cost of living in the UK continues to rise with the sterling now worth 10% less since the vote. 
  • UK: Inflation for October remained at 3%, a five year high.  Inflation was expected to touch 3.1% for the month. 
  • UK: Retail 2017 endured the weakest year since 2013 with sales volume for December dropping 1.5% on November’s read.  This drop was far below the expectations of 0.6%. 
  • The EU enjoyed strong growth in Q3 as countries in Central Europe reached growth of a 9 year high of 5.3%.  Q3 had 0.6% QoQ growth, and 2.5% YoY.  Romania grew 8.6% YoY.  This drew comments of fiscal tightening over fears of inflation as the figure was 3% over expectations.   Germany continues to grow strongly.  Their supply chain reaches to the central European countries that saw significant growth.  Private consumption has also increased due to wage increases and employment growth.
  • Greece: Debt-to-GDP for 2017 is expected to hit 181.1% when numbers are finalised, and 165% in 2020, 127.2% for 2030, and 96.4% for 2060. 

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